The Not Real North Korean Crisis Explained

Since there seems to be a mass panic about North Korea and Donald Trump spreading over social media, I’m gonna take a moment to state what I seriously think is happening. I could be wrong, but if I am, no one will care since *ahem* we will all have bigger fish to fry then going “NICE ONE DUMBASS” on my post.

First off, this is mostly a joke crisis intended to whip up the domestic populations of both the United States of America and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.  Donald Trump loves talking tough for his shrinking base of support, and so does Kim Jong Un. Both like looking like the tough guy to their fans, but really neither one of them have the sort of fortitude for a fight. Donald Trump golfs for 17 days, and doesn’t return to D.C. for this “crisis”. He tweets and tees off, and that’s it for his term in the White House. I’m sure that’s obvious by now by any objective standard.

North Korea is a impoverished state bankrolled by the People’s Republic of China (our biggest trading partner, and one that is happy to keep improving their living standards and infrastructure as we play Global SuperCop).  Through trade and direct aid, they fund to the tune of billions Kim Jong Un’s fat ass in Pyongyang and keep him comfortable with flown in lobster dinners and the only Netflix account in the North. Kim Jong Un is the richest man in North Korea who has maintained power despite his youth and lack of any sort of “gravitas”. He’s outsmarted his older relatives and Generals, and is firmly in charge of the Hermit Kingdom. Does anyone think that he doesn’t realize that attacking Guam isn’t the same as decapitating the United States, and that the moment he pushes the button his life of whores, luxury goods, and yachting is all over in a flash of blinding white light? It’s also quite hysterical to think that the North Korean military would attack Guam after, you know, telling people they will attack Guam. Even the most insipid military leaders realize you do not state your target before, you know, attacking your target, to the enemy. People get sort of defensive when you do that.

Donald Trump, I’m sure, also knows pushing the button ends his cushy lifestyle. Americans would have little sympathy for a Commander in Chief who eradicated a whole nation and went back to Mar-a-Lago for 17 days as our troops invade the North, after suffering a hideous amount of casualties.

To take a step back for a moment, why does China bankroll North Korea do you think? Not out of some sympathy to their communist brethren, but to keep the United States military from their borders.  No one questions an eventual U.S. victory in an all out total nuclear war, and after the rubble would be cleared, new American bases just like those setup in post-war Germany and Japan would be on the Chinese doorstep. China would have no buffer zone between the most powerful military on the planet and their coastal cities.  On top of that, any North Koreans that survived the barrage would end up being refugees swarming their borders, with the number of displaced persons rivaling the aftermath of the Second World War. China would never have a good or easy time trying to deal with thousands if not millions of irradiated, starving, and dying Koreans pouring over their fence.

So where does this leave us? Essentially, North Korea is a Chinese colony. It’s only point of existence is protect their borders as it has no way of functioning without outside aid. The Chinese controls Kim Jong Un’s wallet. They’ll let him act up so he looks good to his own military,  and most importantly, China knows that Trump, who wants to look like he is the man who “fixed” the Korean situation once and for all, needs their “help”. If you have noticed lately,  Trump is barely asking for any sanctions, duties, or import tariffs on Chinese goods, and is asking for Chinese support (which they will be of course “happy” to give, provided he ignores all their issues with trade).

So, the Chinese will shut down the situation whenever they want. We will get some great soundbytes coming from North Korea and the USA (which Kim Jong Un will love to have his state media broadcast how firm he is, and what Trump will love to talk about to his supporters at yet another rally), but this situation will just fizzle out, and in the end, the Chinese will look like a confident, responsible world leader who had defused a tense situation caused by a bellicose North Korea and an irresponsible United States.

And all of a sudden, there’s a true contender to the superpower title that the United States has held since 1991.

Just like they intended.

TL;DR: “Tattaglia’s a pimp. He never could’ve outfought Santino. But I didn’t know until this day that it was Barzini all along.”

“The war is waged by each ruling group against its own subjects, and the object of the war is not to make or prevent conquests of territory, but to keep the structure of society intact. The very word “war”, therefore, has become misleading. It would probably be accurate to say that by becoming continuous war has ceased to exist.”

About Forbes West

Forbes West was born and raised in Chicago, Illinois and graduated with a Master's Degree in Political Science from California State University, Long Beach. He currently lives and works mostly in San Francisco, CA and owns a home in Ojima, Japan- a village five hours south of Tokyo by car that is in the foothills of Mt. Fuji.

5 Responses to The Not Real North Korean Crisis Explained

  1. Just to keep out of the “the bunker”, I will respond here. Only to say this. I agree that if dealing with rational predictable people, these assessments would probably hold true.
    Sadly, with new developments in the Russia investigation, I suspect our Presidente may just be smart enough to realize he is actually in danger of losing everything anyway. Assuming of course, that the delusion can be pierced. Normal behaviour of any kind or assumptions based on what a normal person would do so far have not proven out. Unfortunately, both Trump and Kim Jung Un are immature bully boys who have just enough access to very bad things and potential to inflict some serious damage to us all before any can step in to stop them.

    But then I expected the SALT treaties to fail decades ago resulting in global nuclear war.

  2. I sure hope you are right.

    Its a plausible scenario for the brinksmanship but not the only one and what if something goes wrong?

    High stakes and still flippin’ worrying.

    ***
    Population of :

    Pyongyang = 2 million people, Seoul = 10 million, North Korea = 25 million, South Korea = 50 million, PRC (China) = well over a billion if worst happens and it gets involved / targeted.

    (Demographic figures rounded up and from wikipedia.)

    The North Koreans are very close to Seoul and should anything happen that city at least is almost certainly going to be utterly devastated. Even before any fallout starts raining down.

    Conventional or nuclear, the likely death toll from a resumed / second Korean War is going to very quickly be into the millions and it can and should be avoided. Whether you are correct or not, this is far too close to becoming reality for my liking – and I live in Australia.

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